Introduction

The College Football Playoff (CFP) has introduced a new seeding rule that would have significantly altered the 2024 bracket. This change, which eliminates byes for conference champions, is set to have far-reaching consequences for future playoffs.

The New Seeding Rule

Conference commissioners have voted to adopt a straight seeding format starting in 2025. This means that the top 12 teams will be seeded based on their overall rankings, with five spots still reserved for conference champions.

2024 Bracket Simulation

To understand the impact of this change, let's revisit the 2024 playoff scenario with straight seeding instead of conference-champ byes.

First Round

• 12 Clemson at 5 Notre Dame (SP+ projection: Irish by 13.1, 79.4% win probability)
• 11 Arizona State at 6 Ohio State (OSU by 24.2, 93.6% win probability)
• 10 SMU at 7 Tennessee (Tennessee by 7.0, 66.9% win probability)
• 9 Boise State at 8 Indiana (Indiana by 12.5, 78.3% win probability)

Quarterfinals

• Rose Bowl: 1 Oregon vs. 8 Indiana (SP+ projection: Oregon by 5.9, 64.4% win probability)
• Fiesta Bowl: 4 Penn State vs. 5 Notre Dame (PSU by 0.7, 51.8% win probability)
• Sugar Bowl: 3 Texas vs. 6 Ohio State (OSU by 7.1, 67.1% win probability)
• Peach Bowl: 2 Georgia vs. 7 Tennessee (UGA by 2.4, 55.9% win probability)

Semifinals

• Cotton Bowl: 1 Oregon vs. 5 Notre Dame (SP+ projection: Oregon by 2.1, 55.3% win probability)
• Orange Bowl: 2 Georgia vs. 6 Ohio State (OSU by 6.8, 66.6% win probability)

Final

• 5 Notre Dame vs. 6 Ohio State

Who Benefits?

The new seeding rule would have benefited teams like Ohio State and Tennessee, who would no longer be paired with top-seeded Oregon in the quarterfinals. Conversely, teams like Georgia and Texas would have seen their title odds decrease.

Key Takeaways

• Good: The No. 5 seed is no longer as uniquely valuable.
• Bad: Conference title games mean even less now.

Conclusion

The new CFP seeding rules aim to create a more balanced and competitive playoff structure. While the impact on the 2024 bracket is clear, the long-term effects remain to be seen as we approach the 2025 season.