2025 Belmont Stakes: Expert Betting Tips and Race Analysis

The 157th running of the Belmont Stakes is set to take place this Saturday at Saratoga Race Course, featuring a thrilling Triple Crown rematch. Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty will face off against Preakness winner Journalism, with Baeza, who finished third in the Kentucky Derby, also in the mix. This year’s race promises to be a showdown of top-tier talent, with only eight horses entered.

Key Contenders

Sovereignty: The Kentucky Derby champion, trained by Bill Mott, is known for his closing speed. With a record of 6:3-2-0, he’s a strong contender but skipped the Preakness to focus on this race.
Journalism: Winner of the Preakness, this horse has a stellar record of 7:5-1-1. Trained by Mike McCarthy, Journalism is the favorite but faces the challenge of running three races in five weeks.
Baeza: Trained by John Shirreffs, Baeza has shown consistent performance with a record of 5:1-2-1. He’s well-rested and could be a dark horse in this race.

Betting Strategy

With a small field and a heavy favorite like Journalism, the key to smart betting is finding value. Here are some tips:

Look for Value: While Journalism is the favorite, consider horses like Baeza or Sovereignty, which might offer better odds.
Consider Rest: Baeza has had more rest compared to Journalism, which could be a factor in the final stretch.
Watch the Pace: Sovereignty’s closing speed could be decisive if the pace is right.

Race Details

Distance: 1¼ miles
Location: Saratoga Race Course
Post Positions and Odds:

Post	Name	Odds	Trainer	Jockey	Style	Record	Notes
1	Hill Road	10-1	Chad Brown	Irad Ortiz Jr.	Closer	5:2-0-2	Has won in the U.S. and Ireland
2	Sovereignty	2-1	Bill Mott	Junior Alvarado	Closer	6:3-2-0	Won Kentucky Derby
3	Rodriguez	6-1	Bob Baffert	Mike Smith	Pace	5:2-2-1	Won Wood Memorial in April
4	Uncaged	30-1	Todd Pletcher	Luis Saez	Stalker	4:2-0-0	Has not won a stakes race
5	Crudo	15-1	Todd Pletcher	John Velazquez	Pace	3:2-0-0	First graded stakes try
6	Baeza	4-1	John Shirreffs	Flavien Prat	Stalker	5:1-2-1	Third in Kentucky Derby
7	Journalism	8-5	Mike McCarthy	Umberto Rispoli	Stalker	7:5-1-1	Won Preakness
8	Heart of Honor	30-1	Jamie Osborne	Saffie Osborne	Closer	7:2-4-0	5th in Preakness

Conclusion

The 2025 Belmont Stakes is shaping up to be an exciting race with several strong contenders. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a casual fan, understanding the key factors and betting strategies can enhance your experience. Keep an eye on the pace, the rest factor, and the odds to make informed wagers.