The Unpredictable World of MLB Rookie Pitchers

Pitching prospect prognostication can be an unpredictable endeavor. The past week alone brought us quite the contrast in rookie pitching efforts. On one hand, Jacob Misiorowski tossed five shutout innings of eight-strikeout baseball last Wednesday for a 21-point fantasy score that was even better than his number in either of his first two brilliant career starts. On the other, Chase Burns, one of only five pitchers to be selected with either of the top two picks of any of the past 10 amateur drafts and arguably his position's top prospect at the time of his June 24 big league debut, surrendered seven runs, five hits and two walks while recording only one out in his second career turn on Monday.

Misiorowski vs. Burns: A Tale of Two Pitchers

Misiorowski makes his fourth career start Wednesday on the road against the New York Mets, with his fantasy managers brimming with optimism regarding his prospects for that outing. Burns, meanwhile, faces a tough Sunday road assignment versus the Philadelphia Phillies, his managers perhaps as fearful as they'll ever be that he's not up to task of succeeding at this level.

The Trials of Rookie Major League Pitchers

So go the trials of the rookie major league pitcher, and this level of volatility is why I urge fantasy managers to closely examine prospects' skill sets and amateur/minor league statistics, make definitive calls on the ones they like, and, most importantly, never sweat it over failed predictions. That last point is paramount, as even I can attest that evaluating rookie pitchers isn't always going to go smoothly, as I've long been all-in on Burns but more lukewarm on Misiorowski, feeling that the latter's stuff and ceiling seemed more fit for short relief.

Patterns Among Top Prospects

Burns and Misiorowski were both top-10 pitching prospects at the time of their debuts, and there are three more who might mark their debuts before 2025 closes: Bubba Chandler of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Andrew Painter of the Phillies, and Noah Schultz of the Chicago White Sox. These are pitchers who warrant more patience during their rough patches -- and intrigue on the trade and/or pickup fronts -- than the average young pitcher, but the question is to what degree?

Historical Performance Insights

Performance-wise, my past findings that elite pitching prospects experience a heightened level of strikeout success in their big-league debuts, and sometimes also in starts No. 2 and 3, remains true. The 46 combined for a 25.6% K rate in their debuts but only 23.4% thereafter. They also averaged 8.9 fantasy points in those outings, but only 7.9 in starts two through 10.

Season Outlook

It's also concerning news for Misiorowski's managers, who probably must endure what will be an adjustment-period lull in his near future. While it's possible that he'll be the rare prospect whose stuff is so good that this stretch is scarcely noticeable in his statistics -- Paul Skenes is our best recent such example -- past history and the worry that pitchers who throw as hard as he does (Misiorowski's fastball has averaged 99.6 mph) can eventually face arm issues raise the question about his short-to-mid-range term fantasy prospects.

Final Thoughts

Given the choice, I'm taking all of MacKenzie Gore, George Kirby, and Jesus Luzardo, all of them starting pitchers with similar ESPN roster rates and perceived trade value, over Misiorowski for the remainder of 2025. Even Ryan Pepiot would be comparable. Burns' true rest-of-year value might be closer to the Pepiot/Clarke Schmidt/Shane Baz range, though that still might make him a relative trade bargain after his rough Monday outing. Count me in the camp that believes he might've been tipping pitches in that game, which was a bizarre one considering his intriguing repertoire.